Photo Illustration images: Getty images 2Flag: Shutterstock. Using South Carolina as a springboard, Joe Biden has won resounding victories across three weeks of primary contests that have put him on track to win the Democratic presidential nomination. Bernie Sanders, lagging far behind in delegates, is not done just yet. But his inability to break through with black voters has him on the ropes.
Sanders counted on a head-to-head debate to draw contrasts with Biden and regain momentum.
The RS Politics 2020 Democratic Primary Leaderboard
That strategy has failed. Tulsi Gabbard dropped out of the race on March 19th. The field is down to two and the ranking is obvious:. Website: JoeBiden. And he was right. He racked up 10 wins on Super Tuesday, and continued to score delegate wins from Michigan to Mississippi a week later.
Nationwide opinion polling for the 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
The former vice president offers America a seductive promise — a reboot from the Trump catastrophe and a return to the sanity of the Obama era.
And many rank-and-file Democrats, particularly older voters and voters of color, seem happy to fall in line behind Biden, At his Philadelphia kickoff rally last May, Biden touted his record as a Mr.
I have never been disrespectful intentionally to a man or a woman.
Website: BernieSanders. He recently received a clean bill of health after an October heart attack, but has backtracked on releasing his complete medical records. And our place in this fight has not ended. Today, I am leaving the race for the same reason: to defeat Donald Trump — because it is clear to me that staying in would make achieving that goal more difficult. It is up to all of us to put our country back together, to heal this country, and then to build something even greater.This is a list of statewide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the Democratic primaries for the United States presidential election.
The persons named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy. Given the large number of potential candidates, the scores of certain low-polling and infrequently-polled candidates have been combined within the "other" column; their exact scores may be viewed by viewing the footnotes associated with each poll. The polls included are among Democrats or Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, and do not include Republican-leaning independents.
The statewide polls are ordered by the scheduled date of the state's primary or caucus. If multiple versions of polls are provided, the version used for debate qualification is prioritized, then the version among likely voters, then registered voters, then adults.
Should more than 20 candidates meet either threshold, then candidates meeting both thresholds will be given highest priority for entry into the debates, followed by those with the highest polling average and those with the most donors. The following Morning Consult  weekly poll archive    graph depicts the evolution of the standing of each candidate in the early primary states Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina since February The following dates reflect either the confirmed or expected dates of Democratic primaries and caucuses in Those for contests in U.
The pledged delegate numbers listed below are based on the presidential votes in, andas well as the number of electoral votes of each state in The number of DNC members and distinguished party leaders in the count of unpledged PLEO party leaders and elected officials delegates is based on the Democratic National Convention, while the number of unpledged officeholders governors, members of Congress, and their equivalents in non-state jurisdictions reflects their current total.
The numbers of pledged delegates do not yet account for delegate bonuses or penalties from timing or clustering. If not already listed as such, the date to which the contest is expected to be moved is listed in parentheses.
The Iowa Democratic caucus was held on February 3, The results of a final poll from The Des Moines Register were not released as scheduled on February 1, after an interviewee complained that Pete Buttigieg was not given as a poll option during their interview, with the omission reportedly attributed to human error. As the polling firm was unable to determine whether the mistake was an isolated incident or not, pollster Ann Selzer decided to withhold the results of the poll altogether, marking the first time in 76 years that the final pre-caucus poll was not released by the Register.
The New Hampshire Democratic primary was held on February 11, The Nevada Democratic caucus was held on February 22, The South Carolina Democratic primary was held on February 29, The Alabama Democratic primary was held on March 3, The Arkansas Democratic primary was held on March 3, The California Democratic primary was held on March 3, The Colorado Democratic primary was held on March 3, The Maine Democratic primary was held on March 3, The Massachusetts Democratic primary was held on March 3, The Minnesota Democratic primary was held on March 3, The North Carolina Democratic primary was held on March 3, The Oklahoma Democratic primary was held on March 3, The Tennessee Democratic primary was held on March 3, The Texas Democratic primary was held on March 3, The Utah Democratic primary was held on March 3, The Vermont Democratic primary was held on March 3, The Virginia Democratic primary was held on March 3, The Idaho Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on March 10, Chat with us in Facebook Messenger.
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CNN's latest poll on 2020 Democrats
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Chalian on 'dramatic' drop in poll: Can't remember anything like it. Sanders: Path towards victory is virtually impossible. Biden is now the choice of a majority of Democratic voters nationwide, according to the poll, which was taken in the days after the former vice president's stronger-than-expected showing across Super Tuesday contests and as the field of Democratic contenders with a realistic shot at winning the nomination narrowed to two.
Why Biden's endorsement wave matters.This poll represents one week's worth of responses from voters who intend to vote in the Democratic primary. For each poll, Morning Consult asks those voters to tell us their first and second choice among the field of candidates vying to be the Democratic nominee for president.
Morning Consult also asks how they feel about each candidate: whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion, or whether they're unfamiliar with a candidate. Ultimately, candidates are searching for broad appeal with as many voters as possible. But even though the number of supporters each candidate can count varies widely, the makeup of candidates' support among different voter groups can show interesting strengths and weaknesses in their campaigns.
These charts compare the demographic breakdown of voters supporting each candidate to all Democratic primary voters in our poll. Think of each chart as a child's paper chatterbox. If a specific demographic group is under-represented among a candidate's supporters — a smaller share than they are of voters at-large — the chart will fold in. If a group is over-represented — a larger share — it will fold out. Both could suggest an imbalance in the campaign's support.
The question is whether candidates can make up ground with groups that are under-represented in their base or if they can use an over-represented group to make a wider case for their candidacy. The number of supporters each candidate has varies widely, but for these charts, we wanted to compare the makeup of their support.
For each of the top ten candidates, we want to know whether a demographic group is over or under-represented among their supporters. That means measuring whether a candidate has more or fewer supporters of one group than we'd expect based on how many voters belong to that group overall.
We used proportions to compare across candidates. For each demographic group we calculated the difference between the proportion of a demographic group among all Democratic voters and that group's share of a candidate's supporters those who said that candidate was their first choice to be the Democratic nominee. On our charts, we show that data point on a range set by the candidate with the largest score. We chose to use "relative risk" in the cards that appear when you tap our charts.
Relative risk describes the difference in the "risk" or likelihood that something will be true for you depending on whether you're a member of one group versus another. It's often used in medicine to measure clinical outcomes between different treatment groups.
In our hypothetical case, we're looking for the difference in the likelihood that people will be Hispanic if they are a candidate's supporters.New poll shows Biden, Sanders leading the Democratic 2020 race
Here's that math:. That's just one way to interpret the result of our analysis, and we always welcome arguments for better alternatives. Joe Biden. Biden supporters' second choices. Bernie Sanders. Elizabeth Warren. Pete Buttigieg. Michael Bloomberg. Andrew Yang. Tom Steyer.
Cory Booker.This is a list of nationwide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the Democratic primaries for the United States presidential election. The persons named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy. Given the large number of candidates, the scores of certain low-polling and infrequently-polled candidates have been combined within the "other" column; their exact scores may be viewed by viewing the footnotes associated with each poll.
The polls included are among Democrats or Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, and do not include Republican-leaning independents. If multiple versions of polls are provided, the version used for debate qualification is prioritized, then the version among likely voters, then registered voters, then adults.
Should more than 20 candidates meet either threshold, then candidates meeting both thresholds will be given highest priority for entry into the debates, followed by those with the highest polling average and those with the most donors. For the third and fourth primary debates, candidates were required to meet both polling and fundraising thresholds. The following graph depicts the standing of each candidate in the poll aggregators from December to April From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.
Joe Biden. Michael Bloomberg. Pete Buttigieg. Tulsi Gabbard. Amy Klobuchar. Bernie Sanders. Tom Steyer. Elizabeth Warren. Would not vote. Andrew Yang. Cory Booker. Kamala Harris.
Beto O'Rourke. Andrew Cuomo. Kirsten Gillibrand. Oprah Winfrey. Hillary Clinton. Michelle Obama. Democratic National Committee. February 14, Coronavirus pandemic. The victims. Remembering those we've lost. Sign Up. CNN's coronavirus newsletter. Here are a few other takeaways from the poll:.
There have been questions about whether Biden is not liberal enough for a party that's moving to the left. I've long been suspect of that, and our latest poll shows why you should be, too. We asked potential Democratic primary voters whether they were afraid the party would nominate too liberal of a candidate or one who was not liberal enough. That polling roughly lines up with what we see in the ideological breakdown of potential Democratic primary voters.
Of course, it is Biden who does best among this moderate-to-conservative portion. That is, they're splitting the smaller portion of the pie. Indeed, Biden is the only candidate who is competitive at this point who has any real pull with the ideological lane that the plurality of voters belong to. If he were smart, he'd work to make the nomination fight more about ideology. One big reason Warren might be closing the gap with Biden has to do with who Democrats think can beat Trump.
That Warren seems to be making strides on this question is a very strong point in the belief she can win the nomination. Unlike Warren, Sanders is making no advancements on this front. Sanders beat him by 9 points. In other words, general election polls for what they're worth at this early stage continue to suggest Biden is the safest general election bet for Democrats.
While Warren's support may not differ by age, it's very divided in a lot of other ways. Education, ideology and race play a big time role in whether you back Warren for president or not.
Even among white voters, her support is clearly strongest among whites with a college degree. Warren does not need to be winning each of these groups to win the nomination.
She does, however, need to keep expanding her support. Warren can bring together whites with and without a college degree. She could also team up whites with a college degree and black voters. Until she does that, however, Warren will, by the numbers, be a relatively factional candidate.
When I ran a few models trying to explain why voters were backing Biden or Sanders, one thing became quickly apparent: Age was a very important factor. It's as or more important than educational attainment, ideology or race. Thanks to our larger than normal subsamples, we can really see the effect of age. In other words, the youngest and oldest parts of the electorate are nearly mirrors of each other. Fortunately for Biden, the oldest blocs make a larger portion of the electorate.This page is no longer being updated and primaries are delayed because of the coronavirus outbreak.
Each week, The Times is bringing you the latest political data and analysis to track the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. The Democratic race is not officially over, but in every other way the contest has been resolved. Joseph R. Biden Jr. The former vice president has amassed hundreds more delegates than the senator from Vermont, building an advantage that is all but insurmountable.
The only other candidate who was still running, Tulsi Gabbarddropped out and endorsed Mr. Sanders may take days or weeks — even months — to concede defeat. But even his close allies now acknowledge that he has no realistic shot of overtaking Mr.
After losing the Florida, Illinois and Arizona primaries, Mr. Sanders was assessing the future of his campaign, his campaign manager said, a step that often begins the process of winding down a candidacy. There are a few reasons for continued uncertainty: The coronavirus outbreak has upended the remainder of the primary calendarcausing states to delay elections well into the spring for reasons of public health. Biden and Mr. Sanders have stopped holding campaign events, and Mr. Sanders has been spending time in Washington as the Senate crafts emergency legislation to address the outbreak.
In such a chaotic environment, it is impossible to completely rule out some major shift brought on by entirely unforeseeable events. But based on all the information we have now, and everything we can anticipate about the remainder of the primary process, Mr. Biden is an almost prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination.
His dominance over Mr. Sanders was built mainly on the strengths Mr. Biden had all along: an image of seasoned experience, a reputation for empathy and decency in the eyes of many Democrats, and a powerful base of support among older voters, moderates and, most of all, African-Americans. As the race advanced and other candidates withdrew, Mr. Biden created an even broader coalition by winning over larger numbers of college-educated white voters and liberal women. A significant bloc of Democrats remains aligned with Mr.
Sanders, even in his beleaguered present state — perhaps about a third of the party, according to our national polling average.
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